The Oak Observatory · A 2026 reading
How French Real Estate Will Be Reshaped by 2045
Today's price says almost nothing about what a property will be worth in twenty years. We ran France's 40 largest municipalities through the filter of age and demographics.
Camil Czajkowski
Founder · Le Chêne Patrimonial · July 2026
The study's thesis
Before even looking at a price, you have to look at the age of the city. That is what decides what a property will be worth in twenty years. A young city that keeps attracting people holds its value. An aging city that is emptying out will take the full force of the coming wave of inheritances.
Our starting point: by 2050, between 5 and 7 trillion euros will pass from one generation to the next, much of it in real estate. It is often assumed that such a wave would push prices down everywhere. The opposite is taking shape. It will weigh most heavily where the population is already old and housing already vacant, while attractive cities will absorb it without difficulty. The rest of this study puts that idea to the numbers.
Municipal scale, a deliberate choice
We read the municipality, not the wider metro area: that is where you actually buy a specific property. A metro area can diverge from its core city. Worth keeping in mind.
The alert index, an open rule
No hidden judgment. It counts three signals in the red: 65 and over above 20%, vacancy above 10%, population in decline. From 0 to 3, based on INSEE data.
Gross yield, indicative
Rent over price, excluding charges, property tax and taxation. Net of these, the gap between cities narrows. An order of magnitude, not a promise.
The backdrop: a France that no longer renews itself
A national figure first, because it sets the whole scene: France is no longer replacing its generations.
births in 2025, −2.1% year on year
deaths in 2025, +1.5% year on year
natural population change: more deaths than births, a first since 1945
The tipping point came in 2025. For the first time since 1945, more people died than were born in the country. Fertility fell to 1.66 children per woman, when 2.1 would be needed just to replace the generations. The country no longer regenerates on its own. For real estate, the consequence fits in one sentence: a city can no longer grow through its births, only by attracting people from elsewhere. Without that inflow, it empties out.
So why haven't prices already fallen? A shock absorber has long masked the phenomenon. The number of households has climbed faster than the population: people separate, live alone longer, grow old as widows and widowers. Fewer residents, then, but more households to house. That shock absorber is wearing out. The day it stops working, the drop in births will show, starting with the places nobody is moving to.
What remains is the scissor effect, the real challenge of the next twenty years. On one side, fewer births, so fewer buyers tomorrow. On the other, a growing number of inheritances, so more properties coming onto the market. Where a city attracts no one, the two blades close in on prices. Where it does attract people, the arrival of new residents absorbs the shock.
Four city dynamics
An editorial reading, illustrated with typical examples. The objective measure, city by city, remains the alert index in the table.
Dynamic 1
Young and growing
Rising population, few seniors, low vacancy. These cities renew themselves on their own: demand for the next twenty years looks secure.
Rennes · Toulouse · Montpellier · Nantes · Bordeaux · Lille
Dynamic 2
Premium senior, South and mountains
Very old, so carrying warning signals, but expensive and sought-after. Retiree magnets where the inflow of affluent newcomers offsets the effect of inheritance transfers.
Nice · Toulon · Aix · Annecy
Dynamic 3
Old and fragile
Old, population stagnant or declining, vacancy already high. The wave of inheritances would hit weak demand here. The real point of caution.
Perpignan · Le Havre · Saint-Étienne · Limoges · Nîmes
Dynamic 4
Mature, to watch
Neither clearly young nor in outright decline. Everything will hinge on their ability to attract people, often neighborhood by neighborhood rather than as a whole.
Paris · Lyon · Grenoble · Metz · Caen
Observatory · Interactive
Explore your city
Click a city to see its figures. Switch lenses to read the territory differently.
Select a city on the map to display its analysis.
Metropolitan France. Data from INSEE (demographics, age, vacancy, unemployment) and MeilleursAgents (prices, indicative gross yield).
The full table
The 40 cities, ranked by population. Click a numeric column header to sort.
| # | City | Pop. 17-23 | 65+ | Vacancy | Unemployment | Price €/m² | Gross yield | Alert |
|---|
What yield reveals
The market is not naive. Where it pays the most, it is often paying for risk.
The highest gross yields are found in almost every case in the oldest and most vacant cities: Saint-Étienne 10.7%, Limoges 8.7%, Le Havre 8.1%, Perpignan 7.7%. The entry price is low there, so rent pays off handsomely, but the capital is exposed to aging. Conversely, young, premium cities cap out at 3.7 to 4.5% (Annecy, Aix, Paris, Boulogne): there, yield is traded for security.
A decisive nuance: these figures are gross. Net of costs, the gap narrows. High-yield cities also carry a heavier property tax, more frequent vacancy and a higher risk of unpaid rent. A fragile 10% gross can end up worth less than a secure 5% gross. The headline yield says nothing about the resale.
The advisor's reading grid
No single signal is enough on its own. It is their combination that builds a sound decision.
The age of the city
The forward-looking signal. Many seniors means a wave of inherited properties in ten to twenty years. An opportunity if demand keeps pace, a risk if it declines.
The population trajectory
Who is arriving, who is leaving. A city that is filling up will absorb future supply. A city that is emptying out will suffer it.
Vacancy
The thermometer of oversupply. Vacancy that is already high signals a market struggling to absorb stock, even before the wave of inheritances arrives.
Yield
The price of risk. A very high yield is not a gift, it is a premium paid against uncertainty over the capital.
The most robust target combines all four: a young city, gaining residents, with low vacancy and a still-decent yield. Rennes, Nantes, Bordeaux, Montpellier, Angers and Rouen tick the most boxes. Not the most profitable on paper, but the ones where you can sleep soundly for twenty years.
Two traps to avoid
The mirage of yield. A 10% gross yield in Saint-Étienne or Limoges catches the eye. But with seniors above 20%, high vacancy and a stagnant population, the rent comes in while the property can lose value and become hard to resell. Gross yield says nothing about the exit.
Attractive is not the same as populated. Mulhouse topped several 2026 attractiveness rankings. In reality, it has lost nearly 4% of its population and drops out of the top 40. A ranking measures interest, not the residents who actually settle there.
Our conviction
French real estate is splitting in two. And what draws the line is not the price, it is the age of cities and their power to attract people.
Young cities that keep attracting people will get through the wave of inheritances unscathed. Those that age without renewing themselves will suffer it. Positioning yourself now means choosing the right territory, the right investment wrapper and the right transmission strategy while there is still time. That is exactly where we step in alongside you.
Sources, limitations and methodological honesty
- Solid data: demographics, share of residents 65 and over, vacancy rate (INSEE, 2023 census) and unemployment by employment zone (INSEE, Q1 2026).
- Births and deaths: national figures (INSEE, 2025 demographic report: 645,000 births, 651,000 deaths, natural change −6,000). A national backdrop, not a per-city figure.
- Scale: read at municipal level, not metro-area level. A deliberate choice, worth keeping in mind.
- Prices and rents: apartment prices from MeilleursAgents (July 2026), rents from the Carte des loyers (DHUP, France's official rent map) and listing portals. Indicative gross yield.
- 5-year price trend: deliberately excluded, public sources diverge too much to give a reliable per-city figure.
- Special cases: the two DOM (French overseas) municipalities are included for completeness, but their macro context makes them hard to compare.
- Nature of the exercise: correlations at a given point in time, not causal laws. The inheritance-transfer thesis is a reasoned hypothesis.
- For a future edition: rent control, the end of the Pinel scheme, poorly insulated housing (DPE energy rating), local taxation, share of students.
This document is for educational purposes. It does not constitute personalized investment advice. Every project deserves an analysis tailored to your situation.
